One in seven California homeowners policies is now FAIR Plan or surplus lines

By Daniel Masarsky, CA Lic. 0D87510 · Published September 14, 2026

A new Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) issues brief, covered by Insurance Business on September 11, 2026, puts hard numbers on something California brokers already see every week: about 15% of homeowners placements in 2025 ran through the California FAIR Plan or the excess and surplus (E&S) market. That is roughly one in seven policies.

Why this matters now: FAIR Plan’s approved 29.1% average rate increase still takes effect October 15, 2026. If you are already on FAIR Plan or a non-admitted E&S policy, this is the month to re-shop before renewal locks in a bigger bill — not to wait for a carrier headline that may not help your address yet.

What the Triple-I data actually says

According to Triple-I’s State of the State: California Homeowners Insurance brief (as reported September 11, 2026):

California’s E&S homeowners market share rose from an average of 1.1% (2016–2020) to 7.3% in 2025
FAIR Plan and E&S together made up about 15% of the homeowners market in 2025
FAIR Plan exposure reached $768 billion as of June 2026, with policy count up 157% since 2022
Surplus Line Association of California figures cited in the same coverage put surplus-lines homeowners policies above 300,000 in 2025, with roughly 90% of those placements in urban metro homes — not only wildfire-corridor properties

Triple-I is an industry trade group. Treat its policy recommendations as advocacy. The placement shares and FAIR Plan exposure figures line up with numbers CDI, the FAIR Plan, and SLACAL have also put in public view.

Admitted, surplus lines, or FAIR Plan: the placement ladder

Nonstandard is no longer a rare exception in California. The order that still protects most homeowners best is:

Admitted carrier first. Licensed, rate-regulated, and backed by the California Insurance Guarantee Association if the company becomes insolvent.
Surplus lines (E&S) if admitted markets decline. Often a fuller homeowners form than FAIR Plan alone, but not CIGA-protected and priced outside Prop 103 rate regulation.
FAIR Plan fire + DIC wrap only when that is the honest last step. FAIR Plan is fire-focused last-resort coverage. Most households still need a difference-in-conditions policy for liability, theft, water, and other everyday perils.

We walk through FAIR Plan + DIC mechanics here: California FAIR Plan guide and FAIR Plan and DIC coverage.

Capacity is slowly returning — with real limits

Under Commissioner Lara’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy, carriers that use catastrophe models and reinsurance costs in rate filings commit to writing a share of their statewide volume in wildfire-distressed ZIP codes. By mid-2026, six of California’s 10 largest home insurance groups had committed to that framework, per CDI data cited in the Triple-I coverage.

Early signs of relief are real but uneven:

New FAIR Plan business is down about 25% in 2026 versus the prior year (CDI / FAIR Plan reporting)
State Farm has reopened limited new business in CDI-approved wildfire-distressed ZIP codes under its SIS settlement — not a statewide open book
Allstate filed with CDI around September 1, 2026 to resume new homeowners writing, tied to a proposed overall 1.4% rate change and a minimum of 2,064 new policies by July 2029 if approved. That is a filing, not approval. Allstate is not writing new California homeowners policies until CDI signs off and the company opens underwriting

Farmers, Mercury, and CSAA commitments from earlier this year are covered in our August update: new high-fire home insurance options. Availability is still property-specific. No carrier writes every ZIP.

What to do this month

If you are on FAIR Plan, find your renewal date. The 29.1% average hike applies to policies issued or renewed on or after October 15, 2026. High-wildfire-risk homes can see a much larger jump on the wildfire portion. Details and checklist: five weeks until the FAIR Plan rate hike.
Ask for an admitted shop first, then E&S, then FAIR Plan. Do not skip to FAIR Plan because a neighbor did.
Document mitigation before you quote. Class A roof, ember-resistant vents, enclosed eaves, Zone 0 within five feet, and clear photos help every market — admitted, E&S, and FAIR Plan hardening discounts.
If you stay on FAIR Plan, submit wildfire hardening credits before renewal. Up to 12 discounts can apply to the wildfire portion on eligible Dwelling Fire and Commercial policies.
Do not wait for Allstate (or any major) to “open statewide.” Filings and minimum-policy commitments are not the same as a quote at your address.

What ESI can do this week

Send the property address, current declarations (FAIR Plan, DIC, or private homeowners), and clear photos of the roof, vents, and defensible space. We will check admitted markets first, surplus lines when needed, and FAIR Plan only when that remains the honest placement — including every hardening discount you actually qualify for.

Start a homeowners quote All quote types

Sources: Insurance Information Institute, State of the State: California Homeowners Insurance, as reported by Insurance Business (Sep. 11, 2026); California FAIR Plan Key Statistics & Data (through June 2026); California Department of Insurance Sustainable Insurance Strategy reporting cited in the same coverage; Allstate September 2026 CDI rate filing as reported by Insurance Business / San Francisco Chronicle (Sep. 2026). ESI is an independent broker, not an insurance company. Availability depends on underwriting. This is not a guarantee of any premium, discount, carrier offer, or ZIP-level availability.